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Sinking feeling
As sea levels rise, salt water is threatening to devastate crops and
livelihoods in the Mekong delta

By Greg Torode
South China Morning Post. Apr 08, 2008.
http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0/ ?vgnextoid=5bba86cca1929110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD&ss=Insight&s=Opinion

Standing on the jetty at the little river port of Phuoc Long near the
tip of Vietnam's Mekong River Delta is to look out on a timeless
scene. A khaki-coloured expanse of water stretches more than a
kilometre to an unbroken line of coconut trees on the far shore.
Sampans, each with a bright pair of eyes painted on the bow for good
fortune, putter up and down with loads of coconuts, fruit and fishing
nets.

Phuoc Long in Ben Tre province is on the Ham Luong tributary - one of
Vietnam's so-called "nine dragons" of the delta that funnel the Mekong
into the South China Sea after its 4,800km journey from high on the
Tibetan Plateau, a journey winding through the mainland province of
Yunnan , Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia.

The rich silt washed down in its flow makes Ben Tre a rich
agricultural province - part of the mighty Mekong delta rice bowl that
has played a key role in driving Vietnam's rise out of poverty to
become the world's second-largest rice exporter.

As timeless as life at Phuoc Long may appear, incremental changes are
taking place beneath the river's shimmering surface. They presage a
vastly different future for Vietnam and the region, and chime with
fears about food security and climate change.

The river at Phuoc Long, more than 40km from the sea, has for years
generally turned brackish with salt water for about a month at the end
of the dry season, usually May. Now the sea water regularly reaches
Phuoc Long in December, and pushes further upstream over the next four
months. By May, local scientists warn, sea water is expected to reach
up to 65km into the delta. The ancient system of canals and channels
that diverts the river water into farms and paddies will carry salt
water deep into the delta's interior. The coconut and fruit
plantations will struggle to produce. Rich rice paddies will turn
fallow until the rains begin again upstream, forcing some farmers to
make the long-term switch to shrimps, which thrive in brackish
conditions.

"The river is changing, we are sure," said coconut plantation owner
Pham Van Son, a 53-year-old Phuoc Long native, as he surveyed the
listless flow over tea in a fishing provisions shop on the jetty. "My
father farmed coconuts here, his father farmed coconuts here ... I am
not sure my children and their children will be able to do the same.

"The salt water is stealing our land ... every year it comes higher
and higher," he said, echoing fears widespread in the region.

The big question is what is causing the encroachment of sea water. It
is a problem vexing not just the delta farmers, but scientists and
researchers across Vietnam and internationally. Together with the
flood plains of Egypt and Bangladesh and the islands of the Maldives,
the Mekong delta has been described in United Nations reports as one
of the most at-risk areas on Earth once sea levels start to rise as
the climate warms. Other places in the region, including Guangzhou,
Shanghai and Bangkok, face long-term risks but recent UN reports
single out the delta for special attention.

Gradual encroachment will be one of the first signs of rising sea
levels, noticeable before physical rises are detected. Some experts
now ask if it is already happening, or if other factors, such as
damming of the Mekong upstream in China and deforestation and
irrigation, are also responsible.

Dr Nguyen Huu Chiem, a scientist at the nearby Can Tho University, the
biggest research centre in the delta, said there was enough anecdotal
evidence to demand urgent action. "There is no time to waste ... this
is the most urgent issue we face," he said. "Sea water encroachment is
already happening but it is hard to say exactly why at this point ...
we've got a lot more work to do."

In the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi, Ugo Blanco, a programme officer for
the United Nations Development Programme, said a great deal more
research was needed to pinpoint the cause, despite growing anecdotal
evidence.

"There is just not the long record of data available to help us look
at previous years," Mr Blanco said. "There are clear signs that the
problem is getting worse and we are working on developing
programmes ... First, we need more information and data, and then we
also need to figure out the best way of mitigating the effects of the
salt water. This is a major issue and we need to be cautious to be
sure of getting things right in the long term."

However, he said the Vietnamese government appeared highly motivated
to tackle the broader issues of climate change and problems in the
delta.

That motivation stems in part from a stark assessment in the UN's
Human Development Report released in November. The report says the
delta produces more than half Vietnam's rice and an even larger share
of its fish and fruit, increasing amounts of which are now exported to
China. Yet it occupies less than 10 per cent of the country's land
mass.

Stretching to the Gulf of Thailand in the south and the Cambodian
border in the west, the delta is home to a fast-growing population of
17.2 million.

Much of it is low-lying. Ben Tre province, for example, is an island
surrounded by rivers and sits just 1.5 metres above sea level.

"Climate change poses threats at several levels," the study noted.
"Rainfall is expected to increase and the country will face more
intensive tropical storms ... sea levels are expected to rise by 33cm
by 2050 and 1 metre by 2100.

"For the ... Mekong delta, this is a particularly grim forecast. In 20
years, an estimated 45 per cent of the delta will be exposed to sea
water and crop damage through flooding. Rice crops are expected to
shrink 9 per cent. By 2050, much of the delta will be completely
inundated for most of the year."

Even if moves are made to stem the flow, lifestyles and livelihoods
that have existed for generations are almost certain to undergo vast
changes.

Such dire forecasts mean that reports in the state-controlled
Vietnamese media, and government statements, generally refer to
climate change as the reason for the encroachment. The possible
effects of deforestation and intensifying land use are seldom
mentioned. Similarly, the controversial issue of upstream dams is also
played down.

It is a view buttressed by recent statements by Arjun Thapan, the
Asian Development Bank's director general for Southeast Asia. He
described climate change as "a perfect storm" of droughts, flooding
and rising sea levels that could dramatically change life in the
delta, plunging millions back into poverty and threatening "the
foundations of the regional economy".

He also defended current hydropower projects upstream. China has
dammed the Mekong's upper reaches in two locations and is building
three more. A further three are planned. Landlocked Laos is planning
seven projects, seeking to sell electricity to China, Thailand and
Vietnam.

"Current upstream hydropower projects do not materially affect the
four low-lying countries of Vietnam, [Laos], Cambodia and Thailand,"
Mr Thapan said recently. "It is a misconception that China's dams are
impeding flows downstream."

The ADB last week met the leaders of the six Mekong states in the Lao
capital, Vientiane, where the nations were holding their third summit.
They pledged to communicate better and co-operate on a range of issues
from information technology to transport. Environmental concerns -
specifically climate change - were mentioned.

Diplomats know a lot of work is needed to make such pledges reality,
given the nations' mutual suspicions and conflicting interests. But
for the farmers far downstream in Ben Tre watching dry season inflows
destroy their paddy fields and plantations in one of the region's
greatest rice bowls, it is not a moment too soon.

 
 

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